Higher Fossil Fuel Prices Cost Over $700 Billions in 2026

New analysis by 350.org shows that people and businesses will continue to pay a steep price for fossil fuel dependence, even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens and remains so. According to 350.org calculations, an estimated $374bn has already been transferred from households and businesses to the oil and gas industry through higher prices.

Based on pricing scenarios of the International Monetary Fund, even with the Strait of Hormuz open, 350.org calculates that over $700bn ($667.2 bn- $702.3bn) will be siphoned from businesses and households to the oil and gas industry due to continued elevated prices by the end of the year.

Damaged infrastructure, persistent supply risks and geopolitical volatility keep oil and gas prices are expected to keep fossil fuel prices above pre-crisis levels. A detailed breakdown of methodology and calculations is found below.

350.org‘s estimates do not yet account for wider knock-on effects, including rising fertiliser and food costs, lower economic output and employment, or rising inflation driven by fossil fuel price volatility. As a result, the true economic damage is likely to be significantly greater than the direct losses from higher oil and gas prices alone.

Andreas Sieber, Head of Political Strategy at 350.org said, “The oil and gas industry is draining billions from people and businesses on the back of a war that has killed thousands and pushed millions toward poverty and hunger. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow, we should expect prices to remain above pre-crisis levels. We witness not only a massive fossil fuel crisis but a vast upward transfer of wealth built on instability of fossil fuel markets and pain. Governments should tax these excess profits now and use the revenues to protect people, cut bills and rapidly deploy renewables that make households and small businesses less vulnerable to the next fossil fuel shock.”

ENDS

Notes to Editor

• 350.org’s analysis is based on oil and gas pricing scenarios of the International Monetary Fund’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook and global consumption data and weighted price averages as well as reduced demand due to higher prices and rationing measures.
• The analysis takes a deliberately conservative approach in estimating total losses:
  • It does not include wider knock-on effects such as higher food and fertiliser costs, broader inflation, or reduced economic output.
  • It compares rising prices against the price level in the week before the Iran war (e.g. Brent crude at USD 72 per barrel), a price that was already above levels seen in the preceding weeks and months of 2026 and likely already reflected market fears of disruption in the Middle East. This means the true economic impact is plausibly significantlyhigher.
  • Reduced demand resulting from higher prices and rationing is accounted for in projected costs.
  • For gas, estimates are based on Goldman Sachs forecasts (slightly below the IMF’s baseline scenario), weighted and adjusted based on real-world observations and data, assuming a high correlation between European and Asian gas prices.
• Unlike Brent, which is priced globally, gas markets are regional, with very different starting prices and sharply different price spikes , by far the largest increases have been seen in Asia and Europe. The analysis reflects this by weighting observed regional price increases according to consumption levels, assigning 30% each to Asia/Oceania and to the Americas, for example.
• Figures may vary slightly due to rounding, including the conversion of units such as cubic metres into energy (EJ and MWh).

Recoded & Projected Financial Losses due to Higher Oil and Gas Prices